23 febbraio 2010

Follia e scenari iraniani

Sul "Washington Post" si parla di Iran. Richard Cohen, in un editoriale intitolato Iran and the crazy factor, si chiede se Ahmadinejad si comporti da pazzo o sia effettivamente pazzo: una risposta, conclude Cohen, non c'è, ma

I do know, though, that Iran seems intent on getting nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them. I also know that nothing the United States and its allies have done has dissuaded Ahmadinejad (or the mullahs or the Revolutionary Guard Corps) from his goal. It may be time for Barack Obama, ever the soul of moderation, to borrow a tactic from Richard Nixon and fight crazy with crazy. The way things are going, it would be crazy not to.

Sulle stesse pagine, Anne Applebaum indaga sulle possibili implicazioni di un raid israeliano sui siti nucleari iraniani: Prepare for war with Iran - in case Israel strikes. La constatazione iniziale è semplice: Obama non bombarderà l'Iran. E non perché sia liberal o pacifista, ma per gli stessi motivi per cui non l'ha fatto in passato George W. Bush: non sappiamo precisamente dove si trovano i siti nucleari, non sappiamo se un raid sarebbe sufficiente a bloccare il programma di arricchimento dell'uranio, non sappiamo come potrebbe reagire Teheran. Il fatto che Obama non bombardi, però, non significa che non lo faccia Israele:

The defining moment of his presidency may well come at 2 a.m. some day when he picks up the phone and is told that the Israeli prime minister is on the line: Israel has just carried out a raid on Iranian nuclear sites. What then? […] If that ever happened, then the 2 a.m. phone call would be followed by retaliation, some of which would be directed at us, our troops in Iraq, our ships at sea. I don't want this to happen -- but I do want us to be prepared if it does. Contrary to Palin, I do not think Obama would restore the fortunes of his presidency by bombing Iran, like a character out of that movie "Wag the Dog." But I do hope that this administration is ready, militarily and psychologically, not for a war of choice but for an unwanted war of necessity. This is real life, after all, not Hollywood.